Software Index

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State of the Market

State of the Market

Salesforce concluded fiscal year 2026 with continued growth, reporting total revenue of $41.5 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase. Notably, Agentforce reached $800 million in annual recurring revenue, up 169%. This shift toward AI agents is beginning to change how software value is measured beyond traditional seat-based licensing. The company has processed more than 19 trillion tokens to date and delivered 2.4 billion agentic work units. More than 60% of Agentforce and Data 360 bookings in the fourth quarter came from existing customer expansion, demonstrating a repeatable model for capturing value through autonomous enterprise outcomes rather than tool provision alone.

The U.S. economy showed mixed signals, with headline inflation rising to 3.3% year over year as growth momentum cooled. This development has been driven partially by energy price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict, with Brent crude hovering near $100 per barrel for weeks. The associated rise in gasoline prices has increased costs for logistics-heavy businesses and weighed on discretionary spending, particularly for lower-income households.

Recent revisions to domestic output underscore a cooling trend, with real GDP growth in Q4 2025 at 0.5% annualized. This deceleration indicates that recovery momentum has moderated.

The March 2026 jobs report sent a mixed signal, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 178,000โ€”above expectationsโ€”following a revised decline in February. The labor market continues to reflect low hiring and low separation rates, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3 percent.

Monetary policy remains in a holding pattern, with the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% at its March meeting. Participants continue to evaluate the balance between energy-driven price pressures and growth risks, with the median projection for the year-end rate near 3.4% and some shift toward fewer rate cuts.

The trade landscape continues to shift toward higher protectionism. In the United States, authorities implemented an additional 10% tariff on imports under Section 122 following recent legal developments. In addition, a new Section 232 action imposes a 100% tariff on certain patented pharmaceutical products and ingredients to encourage domestic production, with implementation phased over coming months. This aims to support onshoring of the drug supply chain.

Looking ahead, the U.S. macro environment faces persistent headwinds from energy-driven inflation and moderating growth. With the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate and projecting limited easing, the cost of capital is likely to remain elevated. These factors raise the risk of supply disruptions and pressure on margins for import-reliant sectors in the second quarter. Developments over the coming months will depend heavily on the trajectory of Middle East tensions and the pace of trade policy implementation.

Median

NTM Rev Multiple

3.1x

3.7% month over month

Top 10*

NTM Rev Multiple

9.4x

3.3% month over month

Median

NTM Rev Growth

12%

0.0% month over month

Top 10*

NTM Rev Growth

25%

0.3% month over month

Median

Gross Margin

75%

0.0% month over month

Top 10*

Gross Margin

72%

0.0% month over month

*Median multiple, growth rate, and gross margin for the top 10 companies based on EV/NTM Revenue.

Index Leaders

Top 10 companies in the Software Index based on current EV / NTM Revenue Multiple.

Company
EV/NTM Rev
EV ($MM)
LTM Rev $MM
NTM Rev Growth
LTM Rev Growth
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
FCF Margin
Palantir Technologies Inc. 47.2x 343,007 4,475 62.3% 56% 82% 32% 28%
Cloudflare, Inc. 25.7x 72,045 2,168 29.2% 30% 75% -9% 18%
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 16.0x 94,648 4,812 22.8% 22% 75% -5% 34%
Shopify Inc. 10.1x 148,060 11,556 26.9% 30% 48% 16% 11%
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. 9.5x 10,363 901 21.4% 15% 60% 17% 14%
Datadog, Inc. 9.4x 38,576 3,427 20.3% 28% 80% -1% 26%
Samsara Inc. 8.8x 17,239 1,619 21.8% 30% 77% -3% 18%
Snowflake Inc. 8.5x 50,035 4,684 26.3% 29% 67% -31% 34%
Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. 8.2x 7,740 731 29.3% 62% 67% 0% 27%
Microsoft Corporation 7.9x 2,782,561 305,453 15.1% 17% 69% 47% 18%
Top 10 Average 15.1x 356,427 33,983 27.5% 32% 70% 6% 23%
Top 10 Median 9.4x 61,040 3,951 24.5% 29% 72% -1% 22%
Overall Average 4.4x 61,898 7,923 12.1% 15% 72% 0% 23%
Overall Median 3.1x 3,847 1,001 11.5% 14% 75% 2% 22%

Multiples by Growth Tranche

Valuation multiples are strongly correlated to expected growth. Scalar has selected the tranches based on current market conditions.

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

High Growth (> 20%)

7.5x

Multiple
Growth
Palantir Technologies Inc. 47.2x 62.3%
Figma, Inc. 6.9x 29.9%
Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. 8.2x 29.3%
Cloudflare, Inc. 25.7x 29.2%
Oracle Corporation 6.7x 28.1%

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

Average Growth (10%-20%)

3.1x

Multiple
Growth
SentinelOne, Inc. 3.1x 20.0%
Atlassian Corporation 2.6x 20.0%
monday.com Ltd. 1.4x 18.4%
OneStream, Inc. 5.6x 18.3%
HubSpot, Inc. 3.1x 18.1%

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

Low Growth (< 10%)

1.8x

Multiple
Growth
Riskified Ltd. 0.8x 9.9%
DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. 1.7x 9.4%
BlackLine, Inc. 3.1x 9.3%
Five9, Inc. 1.0x 9.2%
Okta, Inc. 3.7x 9.1%

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Top Quartile

NTM Revenue Multiple and NTM Growth Rate for the top quartile of companies in the Scalar Software Index, ordered by NTM Growth Rate.

* PLTR (47.2x, 62.3% NTM Growth), CWAN (8.2x, 29.3% NTM Growth) have been excluded to enhance visual meaning of this chart.

Enterprise Software Operating Metrics

Last updated Q4 2025

Powered by PublicComps

Median

Net Dollar Retention

109.0%

1.0 points quarter over quarter

Median

ARR Growth

13.0%

-0.7 points quarter over quarter

Median

Payback Period

30 months

-7.7% quarter over quarter

Top 10*

Net Dollar Retention

120.0%

0.0 points quarter over quarter

Top 10*

ARR Growth

30.1%

1.0 points quarter over quarter

Top 10*

Payback Period

13 months

-6.3% quarter over quarter

*Median multiple, growth rate, and gross margin for the top 10 companies based on EV/NTM Revenue.

Pre- & Post- Money Deals

Averages for the trailing 6 months of successful software and SAAS fundraising, including rounds Series A through Series D.

Average

Deal Size

  1. Series A$26.0B
  2. Series B$65.0B
  3. Series C$150.0B
  4. Series D$293.0B

Average

Pre Money Valuation

  1. Series A$199.0B
  2. Series B$580.0B
  3. Series C$2,745.0B
  4. Series D$5,150.0B

Average

Post Money Valuation

  1. Series A$223.0B
  2. Series B$644.0B
  3. Series C$2,911.0B
  4. Series D$5,443.0B

The data for the Scalar Software Index is collected based on market data on the last trading day of the previous month.

Metric definitions:

  • EV/NTM Rev: Enterprise value to next twelve months revenue.
  • EV $MM: Enterprise value, calculated as the market value of equity plus net debt and minority interest, in millions of USD.
  • LTM Rev $MM: The last twelve months revenue in millions of USD.
  • NTM Rev Growth: The expected growth rate of revenue for the next twelve months.
  • LTM Rev Growth: The growth rate of revenue over the last twelve months.
  • Gross Margin: The percentage calculated from gross profit over revenue.
  • Operating Margin: The percentage calculated from operating income (EBIT) over revenue.
  • FCF Margin: The percentage calculated from unlevered free cash flow over revenue.

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Data Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence and PitchBook Data, Inc.

Enterprise Software Operating Metrics provided by Public Comps.