Software Index

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State of the Market

State of the Market

2024 proved to be a banner year for markets. The S&P 500 delivered an impressive return of 25.0% (including dividends), while the tech-heavy NASDAQ outperformed with a 28.6% gain. Though lagging its counterparts, the Dow Jones Industrial Average still posted a solid 13.1% return.

The economic landscape saw significant positive developments as inflation, which peaked at 8% in 2022, finally came under control (most recently reported at 2.9%). This improvement allowed the Federal Reserve to pivot towards a more accommodative monetary policy, implementing several rate cuts that brought the target range down from its high of 5.25%-5.50% to 4.25%-4.50%.

Artificial intelligence also defined the year, with AI-related innovations serving as a significant catalyst for startups and enterprise software giants. According to Pitchbook, almost half of the $209 billion raised by US startups last year went to AI companies.

Enterprise software valuations ended the year in line with historical norms. In December, the median NTM revenue multiple was 5.5x, just shy of the 3-year average of 5.9x. However, the valuation difference between the median and the top 10 companies in the Scalar Software Index reached its widest gap, with the top 10 NTM revenue multiple at 15.7x. Revenue growth stands out as the key factor, with the top 10 companies achieving growth rates double that of the index average. Data analytics, cybersecurity, cloud services, and supply chain software are all prominent among the fastest-growing sectors.

The enterprise software market faces a few key questions in 2025. Both fiscal and monetary policies for 2025 appear hazy, creating uncertainty for businesses and investors alike. The performance of early-year IPOs could reignite public market activity. And private markets could set new records for deal activity and valuations as the AI-landscape continues to take shape.

Median

NTM Rev Multiple

5.5x

0.1% month over month

Top 10*

NTM Rev Multiple

15.7x

-5.4% month over month

Median

NTM Rev Growth

11%

0.0% month over month

Top 10*

NTM Rev Growth

21%

0.0% month over month

Median

Gross Margin

75%

0.0% month over month

Top 10*

Gross Margin

76%

0.0% month over month

*Median multiple, growth rate, and gross margin for the top 10 companies based on EV/NTM Revenue.

Index Leaders

Top 10 companies in the Software Index based on current EV / NTM Revenue Multiple.

Company
EV/NTM Rev
EV ($MM)
LTM Rev $MM
NTM Rev Growth
LTM Rev Growth
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
FCF Margin
Palantir Technologies Inc. 50.8x 168,070 2,646 25.1% 25% 81% 14% 30%
Cloudflare, Inc. 18.6x 36,582 1,572 24.9% 30% 78% -9% 23%
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 17.9x 80,847 3,740 20.6% 31% 75% 0% 33%
ServiceNow, Inc. 16.8x 211,842 10,464 20.5% 23% 79% 12% 33%
Samsara Inc. 16.4x 23,692 1,179 22.8% 39% 76% -19% 18%
Datadog, Inc. 15.1x 46,313 2,536 21.1% 26% 81% 3% 26%
Manhattan Associates, Inc. 14.8x 16,340 1,025 8.0% 15% 55% 25% 25%
The Descartes Systems Group Inc. 13.5x 9,545 632 12.2% 15% 75% 29% 30%
ServiceTitan, Inc. 13.2x 10,848 685 20.2% 0% 65% -19% 0%
Shopify Inc. 13.1x 133,635 8,212 24.3% 23% 51% 13% 9%
Top 10 Average 19.0x 73,771 3,269 20.0% 23% 72% 5% 23%
Top 10 Median 15.7x 41,448 2,054 20.9% 24% 76% 7% 25%
Overall Average 6.8x 64,001 6,148 11.5% 14% 73% -2% 21%
Overall Median 5.5x 6,094 786 11.2% 14% 75% -3% 21%

Multiples by Growth Tranche

Valuation multiples are strongly correlated to expected growth. Scalar has selected the tranches based on current market conditions.

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

High Growth (> 20%)

11.6x

Multiple
Growth
monday.com Ltd. 9.1x 27.2%
SentinelOne, Inc. 6.7x 26.0%
Klaviyo, Inc. 9.5x 25.8%
Palantir Technologies Inc. 50.8x 25.1%
Cloudflare, Inc. 18.6x 24.9%

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

Average Growth (10%-20%)

5.9x

Multiple
Growth
Zscaler, Inc. 9.5x 20.0%
Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. 12.0x 19.9%
Constellation Software Inc. 6.0x 17.4%
JFrog Ltd. 5.9x 17.2%
Braze, Inc. 6.0x 17.2%

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

Low Growth (< 10%)

3.5x

Multiple
Growth
Paycor HCM, Inc. 4.4x 10.0%
Adobe Inc. 8.2x 9.4%
Tenable Holdings, Inc. 4.8x 9.1%
PROS Holdings, Inc. 3.4x 9.0%
PagerDuty, Inc. 3.2x 8.9%

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Top Quartile

NTM Revenue Multiple and NTM Growth Rate for the top quartile of companies in the Scalar Software Index, ordered by NTM Growth Rate.

Enterprise Software Operating Metrics

Last updated Q3 2024

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Median

Net Dollar Retention

108.0%

0.0 points quarter over quarter

Median

ARR Growth

15.2%

-0.7 points quarter over quarter

Median

Payback Period

33 months

-8.3% quarter over quarter

Top 10*

Net Dollar Retention

112.5%

0.5 points quarter over quarter

Top 10*

ARR Growth

26.7%

-0.2 points quarter over quarter

Top 10*

Payback Period

23 months

4.5% quarter over quarter

*Median multiple, growth rate, and gross margin for the top 10 companies based on EV/NTM Revenue.

Pre- & Post- Money Deals

Averages for the trailing 6 months of successful software and SAAS fundraising, including rounds Series A through Series D.

Average

Deal Size

  1. Series A$17.3B
  2. Series B$41.5B
  3. Series C$122.5B
  4. Series D$161.0B

Average

Pre Money Valuation

  1. Series A$44.1B
  2. Series B$201.6B
  3. Series C$1,373.8B
  4. Series D$2,831.2B

Average

Post Money Valuation

  1. Series A$54.2B
  2. Series B$237.5B
  3. Series C$1,494.0B
  4. Series D$2,988.0B

The data for the Scalar Software Index is collected based on market data on the last trading day of the previous month.

Metric definitions:

  • EV/NTM Rev: Enterprise value to next twelve months revenue.
  • EV $MM: Enterprise value, calculated as the market value of equity plus net debt and minority interest, in millions of USD.
  • LTM Rev $MM: The last twelve months revenue in millions of USD.
  • NTM Rev Growth: The expected growth rate of revenue for the next twelve months.
  • LTM Rev Growth: The growth rate of revenue over the last twelve months.
  • Gross Margin: The percentage calculated from gross profit over revenue.
  • Operating Margin: The percentage calculated from operating income (EBIT) over revenue.
  • FCF Margin: The percentage calculated from unlevered free cash flow over revenue.

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Data Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence and PitchBook Data, Inc.

Enterprise Software Operating Metrics provided by Public Comps.