Software Index

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State of the Market

State of the Market

The NASDAQ and S&P 500 continue to climb to new highs. The NASDAQ Composite Index reached an all-time high of 16,274 and the S&P 500 surpassed 5,175. The Scalar Software Index top-10 next twelve month (“NTM”) median multiple increased 9.1% month-over-month to 16.4X and the Scalar Software median NTM multiple increased 7.5% month-over-month to 6.0X.

Nvidia reported a blowout fourth quarter ending January 28, 2024. The company’s Q4 revenue was $22.1B, up 243% year-over-year and the company reported full-year revenue of $60.9B, a 126% increase. Nvidia’s phenomenal financial results increased the company’s market cap north of $2T and led to a market rally.

Reddit announced its plans to go public at a ~$6B valuation. The company plans to raise ~$750M in its IPO. This news comes on the heels of Astera Lab’s announcement of IPO at a valuation of ~$4.5B. Assuming both companies have successful IPO’s, we would expect additional late-stage technologies companies to follow suit and file confidential S-1’s to begin the IPO process.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.2% in February, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, increasing the unemployment rate to 3.9%. Both results were stronger than expected, but the markets rallied nonetheless.

According to AlleyWatch, $8.3B was invested in 473 US venture-backed companies in February. This marked a 16.5% increase from the previous year.

The inflation and employment data juxtaposed to the continued appreciation in the public markets provide economists with the difficult task of predicting the economic outlook for the remainder of this year. If the public markets remain strong and continue to grow, even at a decelerated rate, we may see an increase in M&A activity in the private markets. This outcome would be a warm welcome to founders, VC/PE funds, and limited partners, which have seen technology company valuations cut by more than half from the zero-interest rate policy (“ZIRP”) timeframe (the top quartile last twelve-month enterprise value to revenue multiple during ZIRP was 25.3X).

Alternatively, if inflation continues to be persistent, then the Federal Reverse may not decrease the Federal Funds Rate as quickly as originally predicted. Former Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers recently stated that there’s a 15% chance the Federal Reverse increases the Federal Fund Rate, versus lowers the Federal Funds Rate multiple times this year (which has been the consensus among economists). In this scenario, we would anticipate the markets to pull back and the implied revenue multiples for technology companies to reverse course and end the year lower than today.

Median

NTM Rev Multiple

6.1x

7.5% month over month

Top 10*

NTM Rev Multiple

16.4x

9.1% month over month

Median

NTM Rev Growth

11%

-0.5% month over month

Top 10*

NTM Rev Growth

24%

-3.3% month over month

Median

Gross Margin

75%

0.3% month over month

Top 10*

Gross Margin

76%

0.2% month over month

*Median multiple, growth rate, and gross margin for the top 10 companies based on EV/NTM Revenue.

Index Leaders

Top 10 companies in the Software Index based on current EV / NTM Revenue Multiple.

Company
EV/NTM Rev
EV ($MM)
LTM Rev $MM
NTM Rev Growth
LTM Rev Growth
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
FCF Margin
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 20.4x 75,503 2,848 30.2% 40% 75% -3% 36%
Cloudflare, Inc. 20.0x 33,034 1,297 27.7% 33% 76% -14% 24%
Palantir Technologies Inc. 19.5x 52,136 2,225 20.1% 17% 81% 5% 30%
Snowflake Inc. 16.6x 57,536 2,806 23.3% 36% 68% -39% 42%
MongoDB, Inc. 16.6x 31,611 1,586 20.2% 33% 75% -15% 14%
Datadog, Inc. 16.2x 41,948 2,128 21.5% 27% 81% -2% 28%
Samsara Inc. 16.2x 17,918 848 30.9% 43% 73% -30% 16%
Manhattan Associates, Inc. 15.0x 15,350 929 10.1% 21% 54% 23% 25%
GitLab Inc. 15.0x 10,287 539 27.7% 42% 89% -35% 65%
Zscaler, Inc. 14.8x 34,666 1,896 23.7% 41% 78% -10% 30%
Top 10 Average 17.0x 36,999 1,710 23.5% 33% 75% -12% 31%
Top 10 Median 16.4x 33,850 1,741 23.5% 35% 76% -12% 29%
Overall Average 6.9x 58,696 5,585 11.9% 19% 73% -7% 20%
Overall Median 6.1x 5,236 703 10.8% 17% 75% -5% 20%

Multiples by Growth Tranche

Valuation multiples are strongly correlated to expected growth. Scalar has selected the tranches based on current market conditions.

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

High Growth (> 25%)

12.7x

Multiple
Growth
SentinelOne, Inc. 10.1x 32.5%
Samsara Inc. 16.2x 30.9%
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 20.4x 30.2%
monday.com Ltd. 10.4x 28.2%
Klaviyo, Inc. 6.9x 27.9%

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

Average Growth (15%-25%)

9.9x

Multiple
Growth
Zscaler, Inc. 14.8x 23.7%
Snowflake Inc. 16.6x 23.3%
Braze, Inc. 9.8x 23.3%
Docebo Inc. 7.2x 22.6%
Confluent, Inc. 10.3x 22.3%

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

Low Growth (< 15%)

4.0x

Multiple
Growth
Workiva Inc. 6.5x 14.4%
Microsoft Corporation 11.9x 14.3%
Dayforce Inc. 6.6x 14.0%
Paylocity Holding Corporation 6.2x 13.9%
Couchbase, Inc. 6.1x 13.8%

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Top Quartile

NTM Revenue Multiple and NTM Growth Rate for the top quartile of companies in the Scalar Software Index, ordered by NTM Growth Rate.

Pre- & Post- Money Deals

Averages for the trailing 6 months of successful software and SAAS fundraising, including rounds Series A through Series D.

Average

Deal Size

  1. Series A$9.3B
  2. Series B$24.7B
  3. Series C$36.5B
  4. Series D$132.8B

Average

Pre Money Valuation

  1. Series A$50.1B
  2. Series B$141.1B
  3. Series C$165.3B
  4. Series D$1,935.0B

Average

Post Money Valuation

  1. Series A$61.9B
  2. Series B$165.4B
  3. Series C$192.1B
  4. Series D$2,150.0B

The data for the Scalar Software Index is collected based on market data on the last trading day of the previous month.

Metric definitions:

  • EV/NTM Rev: Enterprise value to next twelve months revenue.
  • EV $MM: Enterprise value, calculated as the market value of equity plus net debt and minority interest, in millions of USD.
  • LTM Rev $MM: The last twelve months revenue in millions of USD.
  • NTM Rev Growth: The expected growth rate of revenue for the next twelve months.
  • LTM Rev Growth: The growth rate of revenue over the last twelve months.
  • Gross Margin: The percentage calculated from gross profit over revenue.
  • Operating Margin: The percentage calculated from operating income (EBIT) over revenue.
  • FCF Margin: The percentage calculated from unlevered free cash flow over revenue.

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Data Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence and PitchBook Data, Inc.

Enterprise Software Operating Metrics provided by Public Comps.