Marketplace Index

State of the Market

eBay has continued to strengthen its position, with gross merchandise volume rising 10% to $21.2 billion in Q4. The platform’s focus on enthusiast categories, such as collectibles and luxury goods, continues to drive momentum, with these segments growing faster than the overall platform. This contributed to the announcement of a $1.2 billion agreement to acquire Depop. By integrating its authenticity guarantee infrastructure into this acquisition, the company is navigating the transition toward a resale model that prioritizes sustainable unit economics over raw volume growth.

The U.S. economy showed mixed signals, with headline inflation rising to 3.3% year over year as growth momentum cooled. This development has been driven partially by energy price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict, with Brent crude hovering near $100 per barrel for weeks. The associated rise in gasoline prices has increased costs for logistics-heavy businesses and weighed on discretionary spending, particularly for lower-income households.

Recent revisions to domestic output underscore a cooling trend, with real GDP growth in Q4 2025 at 0.5% annualized. This deceleration indicates that recovery momentum has moderated.

The March 2026 jobs report sent a mixed signal, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 178,000—above expectations—following a revised decline in February. The labor market continues to reflect low hiring and low separation rates, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3 percent.

Monetary policy remains in a holding pattern, with the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% at its March meeting. Participants continue to evaluate the balance between energy-driven price pressures and growth risks, with the median projection for the year-end rate near 3.4% and some shift toward fewer rate cuts.

The trade landscape continues to shift toward higher protectionism. In the United States, authorities implemented an additional 10% tariff on imports under Section 122 following recent legal developments. In addition, a new Section 232 action imposes a 100% tariff on certain patented pharmaceutical products and ingredients to encourage domestic production, with implementation phased over coming months. This aims to support onshoring of the drug supply chain.

Looking ahead, the U.S. macro environment faces persistent headwinds from energy-driven inflation and moderating growth. With the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate and projecting limited easing, the cost of capital is likely to remain elevated. These factors raise the risk of supply disruptions and pressure on margins for import-reliant sectors in the second quarter. Developments over the coming months will depend heavily on the trajectory of Middle East tensions and the pace of trade policy implementation.